Comments on the impact of the "covid-19" epidemic on the high-end equipment manufacturing industry
affected by the outbreak of pneumonia, all parts of the country have successively introduced delayed resumption arrangements. The holiday in Hubei Province was extended to February 13, and the holiday in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hunan, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Guangdong, Jiangsu and other places was extended to February 9. Academician Zhong Nanshan judged that the impact time of this epidemic was shorter than that of SARS. Based on this, we expect that the impact of the delayed resumption of work will be mainly concentrated in the first quarter
the impact of the epidemic on the economy is obvious, and the impact on the high-end equipment manufacturing industry, which has a certain countercyclical attribute and does not account for a high proportion of exports, is limited. We believe that among the sub fields of high-end equipment manufacturing, the defense industry and rail transit equipment fields with strong countercyclical attribute are less affected; As the second-order economic leader, the automation equipment industry is the most affected, or has become the sub field of high-end equipment with the slowest recovery in prosperity; Construction machinery benefited from the countercyclical regulation ability of downstream industries, and suffered a certain impact in the short term, but the prosperity of the whole year was carefree
I. automation equipment: the impact of the epidemic is the largest in the short term, and the demand conversion rate may be increased in the long term.
we believe that automation equipment (CNC machine tools, robots, lasers, etc.) is the high-end equipment segment most affected by the epidemic, mainly because the prosperity of the automation equipment industry is closely related to the demand of downstream manufacturing industry, especially the real-world experience with the highest proportion of applications Displacement and other closed-loop control vehicles and 3C fields
in the short term, the delay in resumption of work caused by this epidemic will affect the prosperity of various manufacturing industries in a large area. In addition, Hubei, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan, Jiangsu and other provinces with serious epidemics are relatively concentrated and developed areas in the automotive and 3C fields in China, which will further worsen the downstream demand of automation equipment enterprises. Due to the order production, it is difficult to complete the orders on hand on time, which will bring certain cash flow pressure to the industry enterprises, especially the small and medium-sized enterprises, in conjunction with the deterioration of the downstream demand of the industry. With the impact of restrictions on the export of automation equipment, we expect that enterprises related to automation equipment will face greater cash flow pressure in the first quarter. As the second-order guide of the economy, the pressure on cash flow of the automation equipment industry may continue until the second quarter
in the long run, this epidemic is expected to promote robots in automatic equipment to enter more service scenes, especially in somatosensory detection, distribution, meal delivery, disinfection, sterilization, medical treatment, surgery and other scenes, robots can effectively replace personnel to operate, reducing and reducing unnecessary risks; At the same time, for automatic experiment width:? Enterprises with large investment in 120 mm equipment are relatively less affected when facing such problems. The superiority of labor-intensive industries in the investment of automation equipment is reflected, which may lead to a partial change in the attitude of enterprises towards automation investment, and the potential demand conversion rate of automation equipment is expected to rise to a higher level in the future
Second, national defense industry: the sub industry of high-end equipment that is least affected
the national defense industry still has a certain color of planned economy, is dominated by the government, and its prosperity is highly related to the scale of military spending. It will be the sub field of high-end equipment manufacturing that is least affected by the epidemic. China is in a critical period of national defense modernization and information construction. There is a huge demand for equipment replacement and replenishment, and military spending has maintained a high-speed growth for many years. 2020 is the end of the 13th five year plan. Considering the law of the previous five-year plan from low to high and the restorative growth of orders after the military reform, the military expenditure will continue to maintain a high growth rate this year
from the demand side of the national defense industry, the epidemic will not reduce the scale of military expenditure and equipment demand; The production rhythm of the supply side will be affected by the delay of resumption of work, especially the upstream links such as raw materials and components. Referring to the historical quarterly production data of the whole industry of the national defense industry, the production in the first quarter was only about 15% of the whole year. We believe that the impact of the epidemic is mainly concentrated in the first quarter, and the impact on the production of the national defense industry is limited. Even if the upstream links with relatively heavy production tasks in the first quarter can make up for the early gap after the production pace adjustment after the resumption of work
III. rail transit equipment: affected by the delay of resumption of work in the short term, it will maintain a high outlook throughout the year
the rail transit equipment market is mainly dominated by the government, and the prosperity is highly related to the national railway investment. According to the 2020 national transportation work conference, the national plan to complete railway investment this year is 800billion yuan, higher than 732billion yuan in 2018 and slightly lower than 802.9 billion yuan in 2019. The rail transit equipment market is expected to maintain a high profile
at present, China's railway investment has continued to exceed 600billion for about 10 years, and the demand for rail transit equipment is still dominated by new demand. The impact of the epidemic on the mileage of newly opened rail transit throughout the year will constitute an important influence factor on the demand side of rail transit equipment. We believe that if the epidemic is controlled as expected, considering the counter cyclical adjustment of railway projects, the annual demand boom of rail transit equipment is expected to remain high. From the production side, the first quarter is the traditional off-season for rail transit equipment enterprises, accounting for less than 20%, which has limited impact on the annual order delivery of instruments and devices: tensile strength tester and sample cutting knife force. We are optimistic about the annual order delivery capacity
IV. construction machinery: the short-term decline is inevitable, and the prosperity of the whole year is relatively optimistic.
the closure of several epidemic areas and the nationwide delay in resumption of work will significantly affect the commencement of enterprises. For CVN samples, it is generally released according to the macro fracture morphology and downstream demand. Generally, the peak season of construction machinery sales is after the holiday. The negative impact of this epidemic on the industry is obvious, whether at the level of enterprise production or downstream demand. The year-on-year decline in the industry prosperity in the first quarter is inevitable. However, from the perspective of the whole year, under the downward pressure of the economy, the counter cyclical adjustment policy is expected to be strengthened, and the recovery of downstream prosperity in the latter three quarters is expected to promote the year-on-year increase in industry demand. We judged that on the premise that the epidemic was effectively contained in the first quarter, the prosperity of the construction machinery industry throughout the year was expected to benefit, and the counter cyclical adjustment in the third quarter remained at the same level or increased slightly last year
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